The Hagerstown Almanack Monthly Weather Column

Cumberland, MD. October 26, 2024 - While the cool blasts will be transient and the warmer days will be in abundance the remainder of the month, will November bring back the harsh reality of late fall weather typical for western Maryland and the Potomac Highlands?

While the National Weather Service has declared the growing season finished for the year in Allegany and Garrett County and adjacent eastern West Virginia, Cumberland has yet to drop below freezing. This will happen in November, but likely not until the middle of the month.

A Pacific Ridge pattern will dominate through early November. Although one, two or three cold fronts will drop the temperature closer to average, the North American Pacific Ridge pattern favors a western trough and eastern ridge that allows warmer temperatures to creep in from the south.

The winds high above the atmosphere where the polar vortex originate will remain stronger than average through November. This will likely limit sustainable blocking in the Arctic that would lead to more than two weeks of below average temperatures in November.

However, other forcing in the atmosphere will allow for a pattern change between November 11-16. The western trough will push into our region and the West will be governed by a high-pressure ridge. This, combined with a connection with northern Canada and Alaska, will allow for a one-to-two-week period in mid to late November where temperatures will be near to slightly colder than average.

The pattern will likely moderate just in time for the Thanksgiving Holiday.

In early October, 70.65% of the U.S. was in a drought but that has jumped to 78% in the latest report. This includes a moderate to extreme drought in western Maryland and the Potomac Highlands that has been underway since the summer. November will likely yield less than average rainfall, which historically ranges from 2.58 inches in central and eastern Allegany County to 3.38 inches in Garrett County. Drought will continue unabated in our region and expand through the Northeast.

As the leaves fall off the trees and we get dry and windy days, the drought will heighten the brush fire risk even more. Keep in mind, we don’t need to be under a Fire Weather Watch or Red Flag Warning to see brush fires ignite in our region. Avoid burning brush during the day and please properly discard cigarette butts.

A favorable storm track through the Upper Mississippi Valley on the eastern flank of the Western U.S. trough through the first half of the month favors above average rainfall and severe thunderstorms. Severe drought will be lessened to moderate drought and the moderate drought will be erased from north of I-70 in the eastern Plains to the western Great Lakes.

Rockies ski resorts will indulge in early season fresh powder and get a running start to the ski and snowboard season. The Rockies will hit a minor road block for two weeks in mid-November when the West warms above average and the colder trend gets established in the East.

An average November brings 6.4 inches of snow accumulation to Garrett County and a half-inch to central and eastern Allegany county. Garrett County will likely see 3 to 6 inches of snow, but no upside risk to more than average. The remainder of the Potomac Highlands will see a skiff and this will likely come during the pattern change to colder temperatures in mid-November. Unfortunately, the pattern change won’t be sustainable enough for the ski resorts to get an early running start to the season.

Will December bring a White Christmas and a chilly holiday season? Chad will return in late November to bring you the latest outlook for the last month of the year!