The Hagerstown Almanack Monthly Weather Column
February: Early Spring or More Winter Cold?
Cumberland, MD. January 25, 2025 - Ranking in the top five for coldest Januarys on record, most folks in western Maryland and the Potomac Highlands are probably ready for spring to drop in and stay. Will it? Let’s discuss.
For Eastern Ski resorts, President’s Day weekend is historically the last major revenue producer. Only the lower elevation ski resorts will have to close one or two trails by President’s Day weekend as longer periods of warm weather eat away at the snowpack there during the day. There will, however, be ample snowmaking opportunities at night. None of the resorts will have to close during the week to conserve the snowpack.
The Hagerstown Town and Country Almanack’s 2025 edition is still on-sale if you are interested in purchasing one. Just email our sales manager, Jerry Spessard, at jerry.spessard@comcast.net or call him at 301-491-4002.
First off, the only top 5 coldest Januarys that have trickled over to a top 5 coldest February is 1978. Coming in close behind was 2014. Are there any similarities in 1978, 2014 and this year? The Alaska Ridge pattern is historically known for producing the coldest weather in the U.S., and was dominant for January’s second half. Thus, the below-zero temperatures the entire region experienced on January 22, 2025, occurred as this pattern was starting to break down. However, we began the month with a strong Greenland high pattern, known for forcing the storm track to our south and bringing snow. Indeed, by January 15, Cumberland accumulated most of its snow for the month.
A Pacific trough and Alaska Ridge pattern dominated in 2014, which kept the cold air pouring from the far northern latitudes into our region during the month of February. There are strong signals for the Alaska Ridge to completely break down and the warmest regime for the East, the Pacific Ridge, to gain control. Additionally, the Madden-Julian Oscillation and longer-term teleconnection patterns support more sustainable warmer than average temperatures, with a few short-term spurts of cold weather.
The two important teleconnection pattern trends in February are the Tropical Northern Hemisphere andEast Atlantic pattern. The Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern, which has supported the sustainablecold pattern, will likely decay. The East Atlantic Pattern will likely do the same, and this also supportstemperatures trending near average, if not slightly warmer.
February’s first few days and its final week will bring the coldest weather for 2025’s second month.
Cumberland averages 7.7 inches of snow in February while Garrett County sees 22 inches. Based on trends, snowfall will likely trend below the 30-year average, but rainfall will trend above average.
Cumberland averages 7.7 inches of snow in February while Garrett County sees 22 inches. Based on trends, snowfall will likely trend below the 30-year average, but rainfall will trend above average.
That being said, the primary low pressure track through the Mississippi Valley will feed off antecedent sub-freezing temperatures and produce a couple of storms that transition from snow to sleet, freezing rain and then rain. So, there is upside risk for one or two ice storms in the Potomac Highlands. We should also see large pressure gradients with a few February storms, so there is an increased potential for occasional stronger winds than what we have seen so far this year.
Nationally, moisture will finally move into the West, so mountain snow and valley rain will be a welcome sight. The wildfire risk will be reduced in southern California during mid to late February while the ski resorts will see beneficial snowfall. There is upside risk for excessive rainfall in areas scarred by recent wildfires to see flooding in February, best chance during the middle of the month.
The Deep South won’t have to worry about another colossal winter storm that paralyzed travel in late January. As mentioned above, an active storm track is likely through the Plains and Mississippi Valley. This will fuel a few severe weather outbreaks south of Interstate 70 (where snow fell in January) with blizzard conditions at times in the Upper Mississippi Valley to northern and central Rockies where snow has been hit and miss during mid-winter.
For Eastern Ski resorts, President’s Day weekend is historically the last major revenue producer. Only the lower elevation ski resorts will have to close one or two trails by President’s Day weekend as longer periods of warm weather eat away at the snowpack there during the day. There will, however, be ample snowmaking opportunities at night. None of the resorts will have to close during the week to conserve the snowpack.
The Hagerstown Town and Country Almanack’s 2025 edition is still on-sale if you are interested in purchasing one. Just email our sales manager, Jerry Spessard, at jerry.spessard@comcast.net or call him at 301-491-4002.
Chad Merrill is a Cumberland native and meteorologist who not only serves as the Hagerstown Town and Country Almanack weather prognosticator but has previously been meteorologist with WDVM (formerly known as NBC25) in Hagerstown and at WJAC-TV in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, and was chief meteorologist at WOAY-TV in Oak Hill, West Virginia. Merrill and since has accepted the position of Senior Meteorologist with AccuWeather in State College, Pennsylvania beginning in 2025. After a rigourous evaluation, Merrill was awarded the National Weather Association (NWA) Seal of Approval. According to the association, only 1,045 meteorologists currently hold the NWA Weather Broadcaster Seal of Approval. In April, 2023, Merrill, was inducted into the prestigious Marquis Who's Who Biographical Registry! Feel free to contact him at cmweather24@gmail.com or 240-285-8476.
